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POWER: Germany Flips to Discount to France, Could Maintain for 6 Dec Delivery

POWER
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Day-ahead power prices in Germany and France declined as strong wind generation significantly reduced domestic costs in both regions. Meanwhile, power consumption in both countries is forecast for only a slight uptick, tempered by estimates of warmer temperatures. Looking ahead, German wind generation is projected to increase further, contrasting with a slight decline in French wind output - possibly keeping Germany at a discount to France.

  • The German day-ahead spot settled at €106.20/MWh from €182.47/MWh on the previous day.
  • The French day-ahead spot cleared at €108.43/MWh from €144.54/MWh on the previous day.
  • France flipped to a €2.23/MWh premium from €37.93/MWh discount in the previous session.
  • Wind output in Germany is forecast to increase to 23.40GW during base load on Thursday from 6.96GW forecasted for Wednesday. Wind will then further rise to 32.17GW the next day – which could additionally weigh down delivery costs.
  • Power demand in Germany is forecast to just edge higher to 60.63GW on Thursday, up from 60.59GW forecasted for Wednesday amid mean temperatures in Dusseldorf estimated to rise to 4.6C on Thursday, up from 3.9C on Wednesday and slightly below the seasonal norm of 4.3C, according to Bloomberg.
  • Demand will then fall the next day at 59.98GW – which could also weigh on costs.
  • In contrast, Wind output in France is forecast to also rise on the day to 9.64GW during base load tomorrow from 2.59GW forecasted for today. Wind will then be at 8.48GW the next day.
  • Power demand in France is forecast to rise slightly to 62.57GW on Thursday, up from 62.44GW forecasted for Wednesday as mean temperatures in Paris are forecast to rise to 7C on Thursday, up from 4.2C on Wednesday and above the seasonal average of 5.3C, according to Bloomberg.
  • Demand will then drop to 59.64GW the next day.
  • Nuclear availability in France was unchanged at 82% of capacity as of Wednesday morning, RTE data showed, cited by Bloomberg.
  • However, EdF workers are still expected to strike from 3 December 14:00CET until 5 December 21:00 CET. France’s power and gas sectors are expected to strike on 5 December.
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Day-ahead power prices in Germany and France declined as strong wind generation significantly reduced domestic costs in both regions. Meanwhile, power consumption in both countries is forecast for only a slight uptick, tempered by estimates of warmer temperatures. Looking ahead, German wind generation is projected to increase further, contrasting with a slight decline in French wind output - possibly keeping Germany at a discount to France.

  • The German day-ahead spot settled at €106.20/MWh from €182.47/MWh on the previous day.
  • The French day-ahead spot cleared at €108.43/MWh from €144.54/MWh on the previous day.
  • France flipped to a €2.23/MWh premium from €37.93/MWh discount in the previous session.
  • Wind output in Germany is forecast to increase to 23.40GW during base load on Thursday from 6.96GW forecasted for Wednesday. Wind will then further rise to 32.17GW the next day – which could additionally weigh down delivery costs.
  • Power demand in Germany is forecast to just edge higher to 60.63GW on Thursday, up from 60.59GW forecasted for Wednesday amid mean temperatures in Dusseldorf estimated to rise to 4.6C on Thursday, up from 3.9C on Wednesday and slightly below the seasonal norm of 4.3C, according to Bloomberg.
  • Demand will then fall the next day at 59.98GW – which could also weigh on costs.
  • In contrast, Wind output in France is forecast to also rise on the day to 9.64GW during base load tomorrow from 2.59GW forecasted for today. Wind will then be at 8.48GW the next day.
  • Power demand in France is forecast to rise slightly to 62.57GW on Thursday, up from 62.44GW forecasted for Wednesday as mean temperatures in Paris are forecast to rise to 7C on Thursday, up from 4.2C on Wednesday and above the seasonal average of 5.3C, according to Bloomberg.
  • Demand will then drop to 59.64GW the next day.
  • Nuclear availability in France was unchanged at 82% of capacity as of Wednesday morning, RTE data showed, cited by Bloomberg.
  • However, EdF workers are still expected to strike from 3 December 14:00CET until 5 December 21:00 CET. France’s power and gas sectors are expected to strike on 5 December.