POWER
Italian hydropower reserves last week – calendar week 47 – continued downward to be at 3.13TWh – however, stocks widened their surplus to the 5-year average – as sustained rising demand, lower PV output and limited precipitation in the hydro-intensive region of Torino weighed on stocks.
- The surplus to the five-year average widened to be at a 0.01TWh surplus from being at parity in week 46.
- Reserves also narrowed the deficit to 2023 levels to 0.38TWh, compared with 0.42TWh the week before – ending its four-week widening trend.
- Power demand in Italy last week increased to 33.17GW from 32.06GW in week 46 and higher compared to 30.04GW the week prior.
- Hydropower generation from pumped storage last week dropped sharply to 256MW from 452MW in week 46, with output from run-of-river generation falling to 3.1GW from 3.6GW. Reservoir output fell also, dropping to 410MW from 493MW the week prior.
- Italian gas-fired generation failed to continue climbing and declined to 13.31GW in week 47 from 14.86GW in week 46.
- Wind power generation last week rose sharply again to 4.23GW from 2.57GW in week 46 and higher than 0.837GW in week 45, while solar PV output continued to move down and fell to 1.76GW from 2.03GW.
- There was only 0.5mm of precipitation in Torino – close to Italy’s hydro-intensive region – last week. However, this is up from none in week 46.
- Looking ahead, the latest ECMWF weather forecasts for Torino suggest between 0-2.56mm of precipitation over 28 Nov-3 Dec.
- Italy’s hydro balance has been revised up slightly to end this week (1 Dec) at -3.93TWh compared to -3.95TWh in the previous estimate for the same day. The balance is forecast to end at -3.82TWh on 12 December.
- Wind generation in Italy is forecast between 1.5-4.56GW over 28 Nov- 1 Dec, with Solar PV generation between 1.47-1.61GW over the same period.
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