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POWER: Nordic Curve Continues Up as Temps Still Set to Be Cold

POWER
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The Nordic forward curve is trading in the green as average temperatures in the region are still set to move downward from 16 Nov and reach as low as -2.75C on 26 Nov – raising heating demand. The hydro-intensive region of Norway is expected to have a lower hydro balance towards the end of the month, while Sweden’s is expected to strengthen. Losses in TTF and EU Power markets may limit gains.

  • Nordic Base Power DEC 24 up 3.3% at 56.65 EUR/MWh
  • France Base Power DEC 24 down 0.6% at 96.79 EUR/MWh
  • Germany Base Power DEC 24 down 0.6% at 101.52 EUR/MWh
  • EUA DEC 24 down 0.4% at 67.97 EUR/MT
  • TTF Gas DEC 24 down 1.1% at 45.735 EUR/MWh
  • Average temperatures in the Nordics are still expected to remain below the seasonal, after flipping from being above on 18 Nov. Temperatures are expected between 1.35C and minus 2.75C over 19-26 Nov, with temps over 24-26 Nov all negative, ECMWF shows.
  • A weakening hydro balance in Norway is also anticipated, with the balance expected to end at +2.76TWh on 30 Nov, sharply lower compared to the forecasted peak of +5.82TWh on 17 Nov – increasing supply risks.
  • However, Sweden is anticipated to climb from the forecasted low of +2.56TWh on 15 Nov to be at +3.59TWh on 30 Nov.
  • Closer in, Norwegian wind is forecasted at around 1.72GW on 16 Nov – down from forecasts for today of 2.2GW, however, with lower weekend power demand delivery costs could still be weighed down.
  • Nordic nuclear availability was at 86% capacity on Friday morning, down from 88% on Thursday, according to Bloomberg
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The Nordic forward curve is trading in the green as average temperatures in the region are still set to move downward from 16 Nov and reach as low as -2.75C on 26 Nov – raising heating demand. The hydro-intensive region of Norway is expected to have a lower hydro balance towards the end of the month, while Sweden’s is expected to strengthen. Losses in TTF and EU Power markets may limit gains.

  • Nordic Base Power DEC 24 up 3.3% at 56.65 EUR/MWh
  • France Base Power DEC 24 down 0.6% at 96.79 EUR/MWh
  • Germany Base Power DEC 24 down 0.6% at 101.52 EUR/MWh
  • EUA DEC 24 down 0.4% at 67.97 EUR/MT
  • TTF Gas DEC 24 down 1.1% at 45.735 EUR/MWh
  • Average temperatures in the Nordics are still expected to remain below the seasonal, after flipping from being above on 18 Nov. Temperatures are expected between 1.35C and minus 2.75C over 19-26 Nov, with temps over 24-26 Nov all negative, ECMWF shows.
  • A weakening hydro balance in Norway is also anticipated, with the balance expected to end at +2.76TWh on 30 Nov, sharply lower compared to the forecasted peak of +5.82TWh on 17 Nov – increasing supply risks.
  • However, Sweden is anticipated to climb from the forecasted low of +2.56TWh on 15 Nov to be at +3.59TWh on 30 Nov.
  • Closer in, Norwegian wind is forecasted at around 1.72GW on 16 Nov – down from forecasts for today of 2.2GW, however, with lower weekend power demand delivery costs could still be weighed down.
  • Nordic nuclear availability was at 86% capacity on Friday morning, down from 88% on Thursday, according to Bloomberg