POWER
Poland’s Jan 25 power contract rebounded sharply from the previous session to settle just below its all-time high on 21 Nov as liquidity for the produce rose strongly and temperatures in Warsaw were revised down on the day. Limited gains in emissions supported, with losses in coal keeping gains somewhat subdued. Day-ahead prices are likely to be supported over 4-5 December amid low wind forecasts over the period.
- Poland Jan25 baseload power settled at PLN482.40/MWh compared to its settled price of PLN474.24/MWh on 29 Nov, according to data on Polish power exchange TGE. The contract ended its general downward trend that began on 22 Nov.
- EUA DEC 24 up 0.5% at 68.75 EUR/MT
- Rotterdam Coal JAN 25 down 1.3% at 117.75 USD/MT
- Average temperatures in Warsaw have been revised down over 3-7 Dec, with the largest revision on 7 Dec, which is expected to be 1C lower than previous forecasts. Temps are expected to generally fall from the 3 Dec peak and reach as low as 0.1C on 11 Dec.
- The Jan 25 contract traded 15 times in 20 lots from 13 lots exchanged in the previous session.
- Jan opened at PLN483/MWh before dropping to PLN481/MWh – the low for the day – and climbing to PLN484/MWh – the high for the day – towards the end of the session.
- Closer in, the day-ahead rose to PLN682.99/MWh for Tuesday delivery from PLN503.37/MWh for Monday amid wind expected to drop to 1.88GW from 3.74GW today and demand estimated to rise to an average of 19.83GW from 19.14GW on 2 Dec.
- Looking slightly ahead, wind is expected to be between 0.396-0.679GW on 4-5 Dec (Wed-Thurs) which may support delivery prices. Demand on those same days is expected to average around 19.8GW, according to Entso-E.
- Wind will then be at 4.61GW on 6 Dec – likely weighing down costs from the previous two sessions.
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