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US DATA: PPI Aggregates Further Boosted By Robust Revisions

US DATA
  • The PCE-relevant components of PPI have clearly set the tone with the market's dovish reaction to the release but the aggregate series were still notably stronger than expected.
  • Overall PPI final demand inflation printed at 0.40% M/M sa (cons 0.3) after a heavy upward revision of 0.50% (initial 0.22) in Dec although that was partly offset by a downward revised 0.23% (initial 0.38) in Nov.
  • Our preferred core PPI series, ex food, energy & trade services painted a slightly stronger picture again, surprising with 0.32% M/M (cons 0.2) after an upward revised 0.35% (initial 0.07) with much smaller near-term downward revisions.
  • The NSA-based Y/Y calculations weren't subject to annual seasonal adjustment revisions and were still clearly stronger than expected as we pointed to earlier with core PPI at 3.4% Y/Y vs cons 3.1%.
  • Recent momentum also looks stronger, with the three-month accelerating to 3.3% annualized from 3.1% in Dec (revised up from 1.9%) whilst the six-month eased to 3.1% but only after an upward revised 3.2% (initial 2.4%).
  • See the revisions table and trend charts below:
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  • The PCE-relevant components of PPI have clearly set the tone with the market's dovish reaction to the release but the aggregate series were still notably stronger than expected.
  • Overall PPI final demand inflation printed at 0.40% M/M sa (cons 0.3) after a heavy upward revision of 0.50% (initial 0.22) in Dec although that was partly offset by a downward revised 0.23% (initial 0.38) in Nov.
  • Our preferred core PPI series, ex food, energy & trade services painted a slightly stronger picture again, surprising with 0.32% M/M (cons 0.2) after an upward revised 0.35% (initial 0.07) with much smaller near-term downward revisions.
  • The NSA-based Y/Y calculations weren't subject to annual seasonal adjustment revisions and were still clearly stronger than expected as we pointed to earlier with core PPI at 3.4% Y/Y vs cons 3.1%.
  • Recent momentum also looks stronger, with the three-month accelerating to 3.3% annualized from 3.1% in Dec (revised up from 1.9%) whilst the six-month eased to 3.1% but only after an upward revised 3.2% (initial 2.4%).
  • See the revisions table and trend charts below:
image