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Presidential Race Deadlocked In National Polling

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The New York Times national polling average shows the 2024 presidential race deadlocked at 46% apiece, with President Biden closing the polling gap to former President Trump following his Manhattan hush money conviction.

  • Nate Cohn at the NYT notes: “The New York Times’s polling averages show a very close race nationally and in the critical battleground states. Donald J. Trump has a slim lead over President Biden in seven key states, but it is more tenuous than most candidates’ polling advantages in past elections. In fact, today’s polling average shows a closer race than the final November polls did in any election of the last two decades.”
  • Cohn adds: "Biden began to narrow his deficit in the national polls in the wake of his State of the Union address in March. He’s closed the gap entirely since Trump’s felony conviction in late May. But Trump is still slightly ahead in battleground state polls ahead of their first debate on Thursday."

Figure 1: 2024 Presidential Election National Polling Average

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The New York Times national polling average shows the 2024 presidential race deadlocked at 46% apiece, with President Biden closing the polling gap to former President Trump following his Manhattan hush money conviction.

  • Nate Cohn at the NYT notes: “The New York Times’s polling averages show a very close race nationally and in the critical battleground states. Donald J. Trump has a slim lead over President Biden in seven key states, but it is more tenuous than most candidates’ polling advantages in past elections. In fact, today’s polling average shows a closer race than the final November polls did in any election of the last two decades.”
  • Cohn adds: "Biden began to narrow his deficit in the national polls in the wake of his State of the Union address in March. He’s closed the gap entirely since Trump’s felony conviction in late May. But Trump is still slightly ahead in battleground state polls ahead of their first debate on Thursday."

Figure 1: 2024 Presidential Election National Polling Average

Keep reading...Show less