Presidential Run-Off Set To Prove Close Contest

Following the first round of the presidential election on 23 March attention now turns towards the run-off on 6 April. Former Foreign Minister Ivan Korcok won a first-round plurality, taking 42.5% of the vote. He is an independent, but has the backing of the main oppostion liberal Progressive Slovakia. Joining Korcok in the run-off will be former PM and current Speaker of the National Council Peter Pellegrini, who took 37.0% of the vote. Pellegrini is leader of the centre-left Hlas-SD and has the endorsement of PM Robert Fico's left-wing populist Smer-SD.

• No polling has been released since the first round took place. The hypothetical polling on a Korcok-Pellegrini run-off carried out prior to the election has consistently shown Pellegrini in the lead.
• Third-placed candidate Stefan Harabin, who won 11.7% of the vote, was backed by two nationalist pro-Russian parties. As such his supporters are more likely to opt for Pellegrini than the pro-EU Korcok in the run-off. However, Korcok's strong performance could act as a boost for his campaign, and he requires a smaller increase in voters to push him over the 50% level.
• Given Slovakia's position as a eurozone and EU member the outcome of the election has notable implications both domestically and regionally. A win for Pellegrini would bolster Fico's position given he would not face a political opponent in the president's office.
• A Korcok victory could maintain incumbent President Zuzana Caputova's stance of criticising Fico's policies for allegedly being anti-EU, anti-Ukrainian, and pro-Russian.

Source: Sanep, NMS, Ipsos, Focus, AKO, Median, MNI