-
Policy
Policy
Exclusive interviews with leading policymakers that convey the true policy message that impacts markets.
LATEST FROM POLICY: -
EM Policy
EM Policy
Exclusive interviews with leading policymakers that convey the true policy message that impacts markets.
LATEST FROM EM POLICY: -
G10 Markets
G10 Markets
Real-time insight on key fixed income and fx markets.
Launch MNI Podcasts -
Emerging Markets
Emerging Markets
Real-time insight of emerging markets in CEMEA, Asia and LatAm region
-
Commodities
Commodities
Real-time insight of oil & gas markets
-
Credit
Credit
Real time insight of credit markets
-
Data
-
MNI Research
Actionable insight on monetary policy, balance sheet and inflation with focus on global issuance. Analysis on key political risk impacting the global markets.
-
About Us
To read the full story
Sign up now for free trial access to this content.
Please enter your details below.
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
Real-time Actionable Insight
Get the latest on Central Bank Policy and FX & FI Markets to help inform both your strategic and tactical decision-making.
Free AccessJuly Press Conference: Mind The Gap
Assuming today's decision goes as expected (+75bp), the main immediate question to be raised for Powell today is the FOMC’s current thinking on the September rate decision. Some other areas of focus:
- How to explain the gap between Fed expectations and market pricing? The June Dot Plot saw a 3.8% end-2023 Fed funds median, which is now well above market pricing for a terminal rate to be reached in the 3.25-3.5% range in Q1 2023 and end-2023 rates closer to 2.9% (and 2.5% end-2024 vs 3.4% Dot Plot). It would be interesting to hear what Powell has to say about the FOMC’s current expectations of the terminal rate in this context.
- Did the FOMC discuss rising risks of recession? Powell could repeat the FOMC’s “unconditional” commitment to bringing inflation down to target, and the necessity to ensure price stability in order to have a healthy labor market.
- Can Powell provide more specific guidance on the outlook beyond “neutral”? In particular, is the thinking any different to what it was in June, given incoming data?
- Is the FOMC encouraged by apparent progress on inflation expectations and / or ebbing commodity prices?
- Any more QT guidance? While nothing new on balance sheet policy is likely to develop at this meeting, Powell will probably be questioned about any potential new thinking about runoff, or how the September 1 acceleration in asset reduction could shape the September FOMC rate decision.
To read the full story
Sign up now for free trial access to this content.
Please enter your details below.
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.