NBP: Presser Eyed After Post-MPC Communique Appeared More Hawkish
The National Bank of Poland left interest rates unchanged yesterday but the statement was interpreted as hawkish at the margins. The Monetary Policy Council described the expected impact of the expected unfreezing of energy prices in more definitive terms, noting that it "may contribute to extending the period of inflation staying above the target" as opposed to being an "uncertainty factor" (as suggested last month). In addition, the Council dropped the reference to the disinflationary impact of earlier zloty appreciation. Otherwise, the Council reaffirmed its data-dependent stance and stuck with relatively non-commital language, offering little in the way of clear signalling about the likely trajectory of interest rates. This turns the focus to the press conference with Governor Adam Glapinski, which will start at 14:00GMT/15:00CET.
- ING noted that the new statement sounds more hawkish than the previous one. They were under the impression that there was a growing divergence between the NBP's assessment of the economy and what "economist consensus and the army of investors" are seeing.
- mBank described the statement as "difficult to interpret," with numerous small tweaks to the text making it hard to compare with the previous statement. They suggested that the statement may have been written from the scratch. They noted that the document was so vague that "anything could be done with it." As a consequence, mBank stood by their call for a rate cut in March.
- Pekao said that they were expecting rate cuts to commence after the summer holidays at the earliest.