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Pressure on MXN Eases Amid Broad Greenback Selloff Post CPI

MXN
  • The lower-than-expected inflation data in the US has prompted a broad selloff for the greenback with the USD index around 1.3% lower on the day. Combined with the surge in equity indices, the price action is providing a reprieve for the Mexican peso which has been struggling in recent sessions. USDMXN is slightly underperforming the DXY move, currently down 0.92% at 19.6750.
  • Despite the pullback, the trend outlook remains bullish following the recent reversal from 19.0401, Nov 29 low. Two important Japanese candlestick patterns highlighted the recent reversal; a hammer formation on Nov 29 and a bullish engulfing candle on Dec 2. The subsequent rally reinforced this bullish case.
    • The 50-day EMA has been cleared and this opens 19.9920, 61.8% of the Sep 28 - Nov 29 bear leg.
    • Key support lies at 19.0401. Initial support is at 19.6094, the Dec 8 low.
  • The focus naturally turns to the Fed’s decision tomorrow along with its latest set of economic projections for further signals on the terminal rate. Banxico’s decision then follows on Thursday where persistence of core inflation metrics should see the central bank keep pace with the Fed and remain in data dependent mode regarding future decisions.
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