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Price Signal Summary - Bear Threat In Bunds Remains Present

OUTLOOK
  • In the FI space, despite recent gains, Bund futures maintain a softer tone following last week’s move lower. Price has traded below the 20-day EMA which intersects at 135.72. It represents an important pivot level and a clear break would strengthen a bearish threat. 134.80, the Mar 22 low, has also been tested. A breach of this level would open 134.15, 61.8% retracement of the Mar 2 - 20 rally. Initial resistance is at 136.77, the Mar 30 high.
  • Gilt futures traded higher Monday and price remains above 102.74, the Mar 31 low. However, a short-term bearish threat is present - last week’s move down resulted in a break of support at the 20-day EMA which intersects at 103.82. A clear break of the EMA would signal scope for a continuation lower towards 102.31 next, a Fibonacci retracement. Initial resistance is seen at 105.04, 50.0% of the Mar 20 - 31 downleg.
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