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Price Signal Summary - Bear Threat In Gilts Remains Present

OUTLOOK
  • In the FI space, Bund futures traded higher Monday, however, the contract maintains a softer tone following last week’s move lower. Price has traded below the 20-day EMA which intersects at 135.66. It represents an important pivot level and the break strengthens a bearish threat. 134.80, the Mar 22 low, has been tested. A breach of this level would open 134.15, a Fibonacci retracement. Initial resistance is at 136.77, the Mar 30 high.
  • Gilt futures traded higher Monday and price remains above last week’s low of 102.74 (Mar 31). However, a short-term bearish threat remains present - last week’s move down resulted in a break of support at the 20-day EMA which intersects at 103.77. A clear break of the EMA would signal scope for a continuation lower towards 102.31 next, the 61.8% retracement of the Feb 28 - Mar 20 rally. On the upside, initial resistance is seen at 105.04, 50.0% of the Mar 20 - 31 downleg.
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