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Price Signal Summary - Bearish Extension In Bunds

MARKET INSIGHT
  • In the equity space, S&P E-Minis remain firm following recent gains. The contract has this week briefly traded above the 50-day EMA, currently at 4184.37. A clear break of this average would strengthen short-term bullish conditions and signal scope for a climb towards key resistance at 4303.50, Apr 26/28 high. Gains are still considered corrective and the primary trend direction is down. First support to watch is 3960.50, May 26 low. The short-term outlook in EUROSTOXX 50 futures remain bullish following recent gains and the break above the 50-day EMA. Attention is on resistance at 3883.00, Apr 21 high and the key resistance at 3944.00, Mar 29 high. A break of the latter would strengthen bullish conditions. Short-term support has been defined at 3576.00, May 19 low. Initial support lies at 3720.30, the 20-day EMA.
  • In FX,EURUSD continues to trade below resistance at 1.0778. This is the top of a bear channel drawn from the Feb 10 high. The channel top marks a key short-term resistance where a break would highlight a strong bullish outlook. A reversal lower would open 1.0533 initially, the May 20 low. GBPUSD maintains a firmer short-term tone and the current corrective bull cycle is still in play. Attention is on key resistance at the 50-day EMA, at 1.2705 today. Initial firm support is at 1.2438, May 20 low. USDJPY is holding on to this week’s gains. The focus is on a climb towards 131.35, May 9 high and the bull trigger. Key short-term support has been defined at 126.36, May 24 low.
  • On the commodity front, Gold traded higher yesterday and is once again above the 20-day EMA. A firmer resistance however is at the 50-day EMA, which intersects at $1876.6 today. A break of the 50-day average is required to suggest scope for a stronger recovery. On the downside, a reversal lower would refocus attention on the key support and bear trigger at $1787.0, May 16 low. Initial support lies at $1828.6, Jun 1 low. In the Oil space, WTI futures remain in an uptrend. The contract this week cleared resistance at $116.43, the Mar 7 high and the former contract high. This confirms a resumption of the primary uptrend and opens the $120.00 handle, and potentially beyond. Initial firm support is seen at $110.18, the 20-day EMA.
  • In the FI space, Bund futures maintain this week’s softer tone and the contract continues to weaken. Price has traded below support at 150.97, May 9 low and a bear trigger. This signals a resumption of the primary downtrend and the continuation lower has exposed the psychological 150.00 handle. Initial firm resistance is at 153.39, the 20-day EMA.

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