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Price Signal Summary - Bonds And Equities Remain Vulnerable

  • In the equity space, S&P E-Minis remain vulnerable and yesterday’s resumption of weakness reinforces bearish conditions. The focus is on a move to 3600.00 next. EUROSTOXX 50 futures remain vulnerable and the contract traded lower Thursday. The focus is on weakness towards 3400.00 and more importantly towards 3309.00, the Mar 7 low and a key bear trigger.
  • In FX, EURUSD is trading above this week’s low. Short-term gains are considered corrective and a bearish theme remains intact. The focus is on 1.0350, the May 13 low and bear trigger. Initial firm resistance is at 1.0601, Thursday’s high. GBPUSD recovered on Thursday and the pair is trading above this week’s low. Short-term gains are likely a correction - the trend remains bearish. A resumption of weakness would refocus attention on 1.1934, Jun 14 low and the bear trigger. Resistance is at 1.2405, the 20-day EMA. USDJPY is firmer today as the pair extends the strong bounce from yesterday’s low of 131.50. The bull trigger is 135.59, Jun 15 high. A break would confirm a resumption of the uptrend and open 136.04, 1.382 projection of the Feb 24 - Mar 28 - 31 price swing. 131.50 marks key short-term support.
  • On the commodity front, Gold remains vulnerable following the sharp sell-off on Jun 13. The focus is on a move lower towards $1787.0, May 16 low. A break would resume the downtrend. Key trendline resistance is at $1889.1. The trendline is drawn from the Mar 8 high. In the Oil space, WTI futures remain in an uptrend. Yesterday’s move below the 20-day EMA was short-lived and the contract has rebounded from the day low of 112.31. This marks a key S/T support. Conditions remain bullish and attention is on $123.68, the Jun 14 high.
  • In the FI space, Bund futures traded in a volatile manner Thursday. The primary direction is down and the focus is on the 140.00 psychological handle. Gilts remain bearish despite the bounce from yesterday’s low. A return lower would refocus attention 109.89, Thursday’s low and the bear trigger.

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