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Price Signal Summary - EURUSD Resuming Downtrend?

MARKET INSIGHT
  • S&P E-minis outlook is bullish as evidence of dip buying remains solid on intraday pullbacks. Recent gains have confirmed a resumption of the uptrend and signal scope for a continuation near-term. EUROSTOXX 50 futures continue to trade firmly, edging higher still to touch contract highs. This follows the recent print above a key near-term resistance at 4101.50, Jul 1 high. The breach of this level places on hold the previously bearish outlook and instead signals scope for a stronger recovery.
  • In FX, EURUSD traded higher last week, but has faded since, failing to clear the 50-day EMA at 1.1916. This average represents a key short-term resistance and markets look fragile below. GBPUSD traded higher again last week before fading into the weekly close. The pair has cleared the 50-day EMA. The move above this average strengthens the current corrective recovery, signalling scope for gains towards 1.3990 next, a Fibonacci retracement. USDJPY initially extended lower Wednesday, taking out support to trade at 108.72. This follows the recent Jul 19 break of support at 109.48, Jul 29 low. The move lower marks a resumption of the reversal from early July and paves the way for an extension lower.
  • On the commodity front, Gold staged a decent intraday rally Wednesday, but the rally faltered ahead of resistance, keeping the near-term outlook neutral. The broader outlook is bullish and the recent pullback was considered corrective. Brent futures remain weak, edging to new weekly lows before stabilising slightly. The move below the 50-day EMA this week looks convincing, with support now exposed at 66.43. To resume any incline, bulls need to again take out $74.47
  • Within FI, Bund futures extended the streak of higher highs Thursday, printing up at 177.61 and the highest level since late January. Intraday rallies, however, remain short-lived, with markets keenly watching for any extension of the pullback. BTPs further cemented the uptrend, extending the gains to hit fresh alltime highs. A positive outlook follows the recent resumption of the uptrend that started May 19 - gains on Jul 6 and 7 resulted in a breach of a former key resistance at 152.47, Jun 14 high and established a bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows.
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