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Bearish Trend Conditions


Bearish Threat


Key Support Appears Exposed


Forecasts vs. Forwards


Challenging The 50-Day EMA

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  • In the equity space, conditions continue to improve for bulls following the recent sharp move lower. S&P E-minis found support at Monday's low. The contract tested the 50-day EMA and the average has so far provided support. A key pivot level has been defined at 4224.00, Monday's low. The bull trigger is 4384.50, the Jul 14 high EUROSTOXX 50 futures are extending the recovery from Monday's low of 3895.00, low Jul 19 and a pivotal short-term support. Watch resistance at 4101.50, Jul 1 high.
  • In FX, the USD outlook remains bullish. EURUSD maintains a bearish tone. The focus is on 1.1704, Mar 31 low and a key support. GBPUSD has recovered from Tuesday's low of 1.3572. Gains are considered corrective, Resistance is seen at 1.3817, the 20-day EMA. USDJPY is trading above Monday's low but remains vulnerable. This week's low print of 109.07 confirmed a resumption of the downtrend paving the way for an extension lower. The focus is on 108.47, 76.4% of the Apr 23 - Jul 2 rally. Resistance is at 110.70, Jul 14 high.
  • On the commodity front, Gold maintains a bullish tone and the recent pullback is considered corrective. Key short-term support is at $1791.7, Jul 12 low. A break would be bearish. Brent futures gains are considered corrective. The focus is on $67.43, a Fibonacci retracement. Initial resistance is at $71.40, Jul 19 high. WTI (U1) sights are on $64.60, 76.4% of the May 21 - Jul 6 rally. A break of resistance at $71.40, Jul 19 high would potentially represent a bullish development.
  • Within FI, Bund futures remain firm following this week's break of 174.77, Jul 8 high. Sights are on 176.30, 76.4% retracement of the Dec '20 - May sell-off (cont). Gilts remain in a bullish condition despite the current pullback. The break of 129.92, Jul 8 high opens 130.72 2.236 projection of the May 13 - 26 - Jun 3 price swing. We are monitoring a bearish candle pattern, an evening star reversal. A deeper pullback would expose support at 128.54, low Jul 14.