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Market News Topics
September 28, 2022 10:27 GMT
Price Signal Summary - Gilts Swing Wildly But Remain Below Resistance - For Now
OUTLOOK
- In the equity space, S&P E-Minis trend conditions remain bearish following last week’s extension lower and this week’s follow through. This strengthens bearish conditions and note that a key support at 3657.00, Jun 17 low and an important medium-term bear trigger, has been cleared. The break confirms a resumption of the broader downtrend. The focus is 3600.00 next. EUROSTOXX 50 futures remain soft following the reversal on Sep 13, from 3678.00, the Jun 13 high and this week’s follow through. Key short-term support at 3423.00, the Sep 5 low has been cleared, the break strengthens bearish conditions and has led to a breach of 3341.00, the Jul 5 low. The focus is on 3229.00 next, the Nov 9 2020 low (cont).
- In FX, the EURUSD remains vulnerable. The break lower last week and this week, confirms a resumption of the primary downtrend - reinforced too by last week’s breach of 0.9864, the Sep 6 low. The move lower maintains the bearish price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. Price is also trending down inside a bear channel drawn from the Feb 10 high. The channel base intersects at 0.9504. Bearish trend conditions in GBPUSD remain intact. An important short-term support has been defined at 1.0350, Monday’s low. The trend is down and a break of this support would confirm a resumption of bearish activity. Monday’s close also highlights an important candle pattern - a hammer and potential reversal signal. A break above Monday’s 1.0931 high is required to strengthen this signal and highlight a potential short-term base. USDJPY is holding on to the recovery from last Thursday’s low of 140.36 - a key short-term support - where a break is required to highlight a top and the potential for a deeper retracement. The uptrend remains intact and attention is on the bull trigger at 145.90, the Sep 22 high. A break would confirm a resumption of the uptrend and open 146.03, 2.764 projection of the Aug 2 - 8 - 11 price swing.
- On the commodity front, Gold traded lower Friday, breaking out of its recent range and in the process confirmed the bear flag formation evident on the daily chart. The yellow metal remains soft. The break low this week confirms a resumption of the downtrend and opens $1610.5, the 1.00 projection of the Jun 13 - Jul 21 - Aug 10 swing. In the Oil space, a bearish threat in WTI futures remains present. The recent break of support at $84.25, the Jul 14 low, confirmed a resumption of the downtrend that started Jun 8 and marks the end of a broad sideways move that has been in place since mid-July. Yesterday’s move lower reinforces current conditions. Attention is on $76.11, 1.618 projection of the Jul 29 - Aug 16 - 30 price swing.
- In the FI space, Bund futures remain in a clear downtrend and the extension lower last week and this week, confirms a resumption of the bear leg that started early August. The focus is on 135.27, the Mar 2012 low (cont). Gilts are trading in an extremely volatile manner, however, trend signals remain bearish. The break recently of a number of support levels signals scope for weakness towards 90.57 next, the 2.618 projection of the May 12 - Jun 16 - Aug 2 swing (cont). Initial resistance is seen at 97.43, Tuesday’s high.
To read the full story
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Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
Sign up now for free trial access to this content.
Please enter your details below.
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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