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Price Signal Summary - Oil Continues To Defy Gravity

MARKET INSIGHT
  • In the equity space, the S&P E-minis found resistance Tuesday ahead of the 20-day EMA. The average intersects at 4398.31 today and represents an important intraday hurdle. Recent gains are likely part of a corrective cycle that is allowing a recent oversold condition to unwind. A deeper sell-off would signal a resumption of the downtrend and refocus attention on 4101.75, the Feb 24 low and bear trigger. EUROSTOXX 50 futures traded lower Tuesday to a fresh trend low of 3704.00. This confirms a resumption of the downtrend and marks an extension of the primary sequence of lower lows and lower highs - a price condition that defines a downtrend. The break lower paves the way for weakness towards 3700.00 and 3663.50. The latter is a 1.50 projection of the Jan 5 - 24 - Feb 2 price swing.
  • In FX, EURUSD delivered a new 2022 low Tuesday and this morning. The break lower confirms a resumption of the broader bearish sequence of lower lows and lower highs, in line with the medium-term downtrend and a bearish moving average set-up. The focus is on 1.1040, 76.4% of the Jan ‘21 - Mar ‘21 bull phase. GBPUSD has probed 1.3273, Feb 24 low. The outlook is bearish following the move lower on Jan 24 and a clear breach of 1.3273, Feb 24 low, would strengthen bearish pressure and open 1.3163, Dec 8 low and a key support. USDJPY key short-term support at 114.16, the Feb 2 low, remains intact. The trend outlook remains bullish above this support. A move higher would refocus attention on the bull trigger at 116.35, this year’s high on Jan 4. Sub 114.16 levels would alter the picture.
  • On the commodity front, Gold has traded higher today and moved above the top of its bull channel. The channel is drawn from the Aug 9 2021 low and intersects at $1941.7. A clear break higher would reinforce bullish conditions and pave the way for strength towards the Feb 24 high of $1974.3. Key short-term support is unchanged at last Thursday’s $1878.4 low. Oil markets remain in an uptrend. Gain this week in WTI futures confirm a significant acceleration of the uptrend. This has again marked an extension of the bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. The $100.00 level has been cleared. The focus is on the $113.15 next, 2.618 projection of the Aug - Oct - Dec ‘21 price swing.
  • In the FI space, Bund futures traded sharply higher yesterday as the contract extends recent gains, resulting in a break of the 50-day EMA. The focus is on the 172.00 handle next. Gilts broke out of the recent range Tuesday, signalling potential for a stronger short-term recovery. This opens 126.90 next, 2.00 projection of the Feb 16 - 18 - 23 price swing.
Fixed Income Technical AnalysisForeign Exchange Technical AnalysisHomepagemarkets-real-timeBulletMarketsFixed Income BulletsForeign Exchange Bullets
Fixed Income Technical AnalysisForeign Exchange Technical AnalysisHomepagemarkets-real-timeBulletMarketsFixed Income BulletsForeign Exchange Bullets

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