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Market News Topics
March 02, 2022 11:04 GMT
Price Signal Summary - Oil Continues To Defy Gravity
MARKET INSIGHT
- In the equity space, the S&P E-minis found resistance Tuesday ahead of the 20-day EMA. The average intersects at 4398.31 today and represents an important intraday hurdle. Recent gains are likely part of a corrective cycle that is allowing a recent oversold condition to unwind. A deeper sell-off would signal a resumption of the downtrend and refocus attention on 4101.75, the Feb 24 low and bear trigger. EUROSTOXX 50 futures traded lower Tuesday to a fresh trend low of 3704.00. This confirms a resumption of the downtrend and marks an extension of the primary sequence of lower lows and lower highs - a price condition that defines a downtrend. The break lower paves the way for weakness towards 3700.00 and 3663.50. The latter is a 1.50 projection of the Jan 5 - 24 - Feb 2 price swing.
- In FX, EURUSD delivered a new 2022 low Tuesday and this morning. The break lower confirms a resumption of the broader bearish sequence of lower lows and lower highs, in line with the medium-term downtrend and a bearish moving average set-up. The focus is on 1.1040, 76.4% of the Jan ‘21 - Mar ‘21 bull phase. GBPUSD has probed 1.3273, Feb 24 low. The outlook is bearish following the move lower on Jan 24 and a clear breach of 1.3273, Feb 24 low, would strengthen bearish pressure and open 1.3163, Dec 8 low and a key support. USDJPY key short-term support at 114.16, the Feb 2 low, remains intact. The trend outlook remains bullish above this support. A move higher would refocus attention on the bull trigger at 116.35, this year’s high on Jan 4. Sub 114.16 levels would alter the picture.
- On the commodity front, Gold has traded higher today and moved above the top of its bull channel. The channel is drawn from the Aug 9 2021 low and intersects at $1941.7. A clear break higher would reinforce bullish conditions and pave the way for strength towards the Feb 24 high of $1974.3. Key short-term support is unchanged at last Thursday’s $1878.4 low. Oil markets remain in an uptrend. Gain this week in WTI futures confirm a significant acceleration of the uptrend. This has again marked an extension of the bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. The $100.00 level has been cleared. The focus is on the $113.15 next, 2.618 projection of the Aug - Oct - Dec ‘21 price swing.
- In the FI space, Bund futures traded sharply higher yesterday as the contract extends recent gains, resulting in a break of the 50-day EMA. The focus is on the 172.00 handle next. Gilts broke out of the recent range Tuesday, signalling potential for a stronger short-term recovery. This opens 126.90 next, 2.00 projection of the Feb 16 - 18 - 23 price swing.
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Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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Please enter your details below.
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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