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Price Signal Summary - Oil Futures Remain Vulnerable

MARKET INSIGHT
  • In the equity space, S&P E-Minis traded lower yesterday but the contract remains above recent lows. Trend conditions are bearish and a deeper pullback would open 3735.00, the Jun 23 low. A break of this level would expose key support at 3639.00, the Jun 17 low and bear trigger. Clearance of 3950.00, Jun 28 high, is still required to signal potential for a stronger recovery. EUROSTOXX 50 futures are consolidating. The contract remains above last week’s 3343.00 low on Jul 5. Recent gains are considered corrective and the trend outlook is bearish. The breach on Jul 5 of support at 3384.00, Jun 16 low, reinforces bearish conditions and confirms a resumption of the broader downtrend. The focus is on 3321.30, 50.0% of the major 2020 - 2021 upleg. Key short-term resistance is unchanged at 3584.00, the Jun 27 high.
  • In FX, EURUSD touched parity yesterday. This remains a key psychological support and note that the base of the bear channel, drawn from the Feb 10 high. Intersects at 0.9991 today. A clear breach of this support zone would open 0.9944, 1.618 projection of the Jun 9 - 15 - 27 price swing. GBPUSD remains vulnerable and the pair traded to a fresh trend low yesterday. The focus is on 1.1795, 0.764 projection of the Mar 23 - May 13 - 27 price swing. USDJPY cleared 137.00 resistance on Monday and resumed the primary uptrend. The focus is on a climb towards the 138.00 handle next.
  • On the commodity front, Gold remains vulnerable following the recent break of $1787.00, May 16 low. This confirmed a resumption of the broader downtrend and has opened $1706.3 next, 1.618 projection of the Mar 8 - 29 - Apr 18 price swing. This week’s extension reinforces current bearish conditions. In the Oil space, WTI futures traded sharply lower Tuesday, signalling a resumption of the downtrend. Price has traded below $95.10 today, the Jul 7 low and a bear trigger. The focus is on $93.45, the Apr 25 low.
  • In the FI space, a short-term bull cycle in Bund futures remains in play and yesterday’s gains confirmed a resumption of the uptrend. This signal scope for a climb towards the 154.00 handle next. Trend conditions in Gilts remain bullish and scope is seen for a climb to 117.48, 1.236 projection of the Jun 16 - 24 - 29 price swing.
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