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Price Signal Summary - Recent Gains In Gilts Appear To Be A  Correction

OUTLOOK
  • In the FI space, Bund futures traded higher Tuesday and breached the 20-day EMA, at 132.67. The 50-day EMA at 133.11, has also been pierced this week. Price has pulled back, however, a clear break of the 50-day EMA would signal scope for a stronger bounce towards 134.01, the Jul 24 high. The trend outlook is bearish and gains are considered corrective. A reversal lower would refocus attention on support at 131.12, the Aug 4 low.
  • A bearish theme in Gilt futures remains intact and the latest bounce appears to be a correction. The contract has recently breached 96.11, the Jul 21 low, and cleared the 20-day EMA, reinforcing a bearish theme. The move lower signals scope for an extension towards 93.45 next, 76.4% of the Jul 7 - 19 rally. Initial firm resistance is at 96.19, the Jul 31 high. A break would signal scope for a stronger short-term recovery.
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