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Price Signal Summary - S&P E-Minis Correction Extends

MARKET INSIGHT
  • In the equity space, the trend condition in S&P E-Minis remains bullish, however, a corrective cycle suggests scope for a pullback near-term. This will allow an overbought reading in momentum studies to unwind - attention is on the 20-day EMA at 4164.93. A breach of this EMA would signal scope for a deeper pullback, potentially exposing the 50-day EMA, at 4078.40. EUROSTOXX 50 futures remain in an uptrend, however, the contract has entered a corrective phase. The 20-day EMA, at 3709.50, has been cleared and sights are on the 50-day EMA at 3650.80 - a key area of support.
  • In FX, EURUSD outlook remains bearish. The recent move down has confirmed a short-term reversal and means the pair has failed to clear channel resistance. The bear channel is drawn from the Feb 10 high and intersects at 1.0282. Sights are on 0.9952 next, the Jul 14 low. GBPUSD is weaker, having breached support at 1.2004, the Aug 5 low. The break lower signals scope for an extension and has opened 1.1760, the Jul 14 low and bear trigger. USDJPY continues to appreciate and last week traded above resistance at 135.58 last week, the Aug 8 high. The pair has today pierced 137.27, 76.4% of the Jul 14 - Aug 2 downleg. A clear break of this level would open 137.96, the Jul 22 high.
  • On the commodity front, Gold is trading lower, extending the pullback from $1807.9, the Aug 10 high. The yellow metal has failed to confirm a clear break of the 5-month downtrend and the break of support at $1754.4 Aug 3 low, signals scope for a deeper pullback towards $1711.7 next. In the Oil space, WTI futures remain vulnerable. Last week’s move down has resulted in a print below support at $87.01, the Aug 5 low. This reinforces bearish conditions and a clear break of $87.01 would confirm a resumption of the downtrend. Attention is on $85.37, the Mar 15 low. Key short-term resistance has been defined at $95.05, the Aug 11 high.
  • In the FI space, Bund futures remain in a bear cycle and the contract is trading at its recent lows. The focus is on the 150.00 handle next. Gilts remain vulnerable. The next objective is 112.24, 76.4% retracement of the Jun 16 - Aug 2 upleg.
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