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Price Signal Summary - S&P E-Minis Find Support Below The 50-Day EMA

MARKET INSIGHT
  • In the equity space, S&P E-minis traded below the 50-day EMA but quickly recovered, bouncing off the session low and is currently trading back above this EMA and pivot support level - the EMA intersects at 4648.36 today. The bounce is a bullish development and note that yesterday's price pattern is a hammer - a reversal signal. Watch resistance at 4715.75, Jan 6 high and support at 4572.75, yesterday’s low. Both are potentially important directional triggers. EUROSTOXX 50 futures has also managed to find support at its 50-day EMA. Key short-term support has been defined at 4216.50, yesterday’s low. A stronger recovery would open 4381.5, the Jan 5 high.
  • In FX, EURUSD is still stuck in a broad range below resistance at 1.1383/86, the Nov 30 and Dec 31 high. The support to watch is 1.1222, Dec 15 low and the bear trigger remains 1.1185, Jul 1, 2020 low. GBPUSD bullish conditions remain in place and sights are on 1.3676 next, 76.4% of the Oct - Dec sell-off. Support to watch is at 1.3457, the 20-day EMA. EURGBP has resumed its downtrend and is making its way towards major support. 0.8300 marks the base of a multi-year range the cross has been trading within since 2016. There is also support at 0.8282/77 Feb’20 / Dec’19 lows and a key bear trigger. The USDJPY trend outlook remains bullish following last week's break of 115.52, Nov 24 high. This confirmed a resumption of the uptrend and opens 117.08, 2.00 projection of Apr 23 - Jul 2 - Aug 4 price swing. 114.92, the 20-day EMA is seen as a firm support.
  • On the commodity front, Gold has managed to remain inside its bull channel drawn from the Aug 9 low - Friday's low of $1782.8 and the recovery from this level means the channel base has provided support. This signals scope for a climb towards key near-term resistance at $1831.9, the Jan 3 high. WTI futures remain in an uptrend and attention is on $81.73, Nov 10 high.
  • In the FI space, Bund futures remain in a downtrend and the contract traded lower again yesterday. The focus is on 169.34, Oct 29 low. Gilts remain in a downtrend and futures have recently traded through the 123.00 handle. This opens 122.66 next, 3.764 projection of the Dec 8 - 16 - 20 price swing.
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