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Price Signal Summary - Sterling Goes Offered As The Downtrend Resumes

OUTLOOK
  • In the equity space, S&P E-Minis remain soft and the contract is trading lower as it extends Tuesday’s strong bearish reversal. Price has cleared support at 3900.00, the Sep 7 low. This confirms a resumption of the bear cycle that started mid-August and opens 3819.54, 76.4% retracement of the Jun 17 Aug 16 bull leg. EUROSTOXX 50 futures are softer and continue to extend the pullback from Tuesday’s high. The sharp reversal lower this week threatens the recent short-term recovery and opens 3429.00, the Sep 5 low.
  • In FX, EURUSD remains vulnerable and is lower this morning. The pair traded sharply lower Tuesday and continues to trade inside its bear channel, drawn from the Feb 10 high. The channel top intersects at 1.0113 and is a key resistance. For bears, an extension lower exposes the bear trigger at 0.9864, the Sep 6 low. GBPUSD has traded lower today and cleared support at 1.1406, the Sep 7 low. This confirms a resumption of the downtrend and opens 1.1324 next, 1.50 projection of the Jun 16 - Jul 14 - Aug 1 price swing. USDJPY key short-term resistance at 144.99, Sep 7 high, remains intact - for now. The trend outlook is bullish and a break of 144.99 would confirm a resumption of the uptrend. This would open 145.28 and 146.03, the 2.618 and 2.764 projection of the Aug 2 - 8 - 11 price swing. Initial firm support is at 141.51, Sep 9 low. A strong support also lies at the 20-day EMA, at 140.77.
  • On the commodity front, Gold remains in a clear downtrend and yesterday’s sharp sell-off reinforces this theme and confirms a resumption of the downtrend that started early March - price has cleared support at $1681.0, the Jul 21 low. Attention is on $1640.9 next, the Aug 8 2020 low. Key trend resistance has been defined at $1735.1, the Sep 12 high. Initial resistance is at $1688.9, the Sep 1 low. In the Oil space, the WTI futures outlook is bearish and yesterday’s move lower reinforces this theme. The recent break of support at $85.37, the Aug 16 low, confirmed a resumption of the downtrend that started Jun 8 and highlights the end of a broad sideways move that has been in place since mid-July. The focus is on $79.83 next, the Feb 18 low. Firm resistance is at $91.45, the 50-day EMA.
  • In the FI space, Bund futures remain in a clear downtrend and the contract has traded lower today. Sights are on the 142.00 handle next. Gilts remain vulnerable and touched a fresh trend low of 104.47 on Wednesday. Attention is on 103.87, 2.00 projection of the Aug 22 - 24 - 26 price swing.
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