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Price Signal Summary - USD Trend Needle Still Points North

MARKET INSIGHT
  • In the equity space, S&P E-Minis remain in a downtrend. This was reinforced Friday, as price traded to a fresh trend low. Support at 4129.50, the Mar 15 low, has been breached. This opens 4094.25 next, the Feb 25 low and a key support. Resistance has been defined at 4303.50, the Apr 26/28 low. EUROSTOXX 50 futures remain in bear mode. This follows a reversal from the Apr 21 high of 3883.00. A resumption of weakness would open 3551.60, the 61.8% retracement of the Mar 7 - 29 rally. Key resistance is unchanged at 3883.00, Apr 21 high.
  • In FX, EURUSD is trading near its recent lows and remains in a clear downtrend. The focus is on 1.0454, the Jan 1 2017 low. GBPUSD remains vulnerable too, following the recent impulsive selling pressure. The focus is on 1.2375, the 2.382 projection of the Mar 23 - Apr 13 - 14 price swing. USDJPY resumed its uptrend last week, following the breach of 129.40, Apr 20 high. Importantly, the pair also cleared the psychological 130.00 handle, strengthening the current bullish theme. This has opened 131.96, the 1.00 projection of the Feb 24 - Mar 28 - 31 price swing. DXY remains in a clear uptrend and last week probed major resistance at 103.82, the Jan 3 2017 high. A clear break of this hurdle would strengthen bullish conditions. Note that the strong monthly close in the index for April is a bullish signal. In Japanese candle terms, April is a standard line pattern and this is a continuation signal.
  • On the commodity front, Gold remains vulnerable. The recent pullback from the $1998.4 high (Apr 18), continues to highlight a bearish threat. This has been reinforced by the break last week, of $1890.2, the Mar 29 low. Attention is on $1848.8, 76.4% retracement of the Jan 28 - Mar 8 rally. On the upside, $1932.1, the 20-day EMA is seen as a firm short-term resistance. In the Oil space, WTI futures are trading inside a triangle formation that has appeared on the daily chart. The pattern is a bearish signal and suggests potential for a test and break of support at $95.28, the Apr 25 low. Resistance is at $106.51/107.99, triangle resistance and the Apr 29 high. The triangle is drawn from the Mar 15 low.
  • The broader trend condition in the FI space remains bearish. Bund futures are eyeing the 153.00 handle next. Short-term gains are considered corrective and the resistance to watch is at 156.17, the Apr 14 high.
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