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OUTLOOK: Price Signal Summary - USDJPY Bear Threat Still Present

OUTLOOK
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  • In FX, EURUSD is trading lower today as it extends this week’s pullback. For now, the move down appears corrective, however, price has traded through the 20-day EMA. A continuation lower would highlight a potential reversal and the end of the recovery between Jan 13 - 27. This would expose 1.0178, the Jan 13 low. On the upside, clearance of resistance at 1.0533, the Jan 27 high, would confirm a resumption of the recent bull cycle.
  • A bull cycle in GBPUSD remains in play and the pair is trading just below its recent highs. The latest pause appears to be a flag formation - a bullish continuation pattern. Attention is on the 50-day EMA, at 1.2510 and an important resistance. Clearance of the average would highlight a stronger bull cycle. Medium-term trend signals are unchanged and remain bearish. A reversal lower would refocus attention on 1.2100, the Jan 10 and bear trigger. First support to watch is 1.2400, the 20-day EMA.
  • The primary trend condition in USDJPY is bullish. However, the Jan 27 move down highlights a stronger bear threat. The pair has breached the 50-day EMA and a trendline drawn from the Sep 16 ‘24 low. A resumption of weakness would open 152.55, 61.8% of the Dec 3 - Jan 10 bull leg. Initial firm resistance is at 156.75, the Jan 23 high. Clearance of this hurdle would be a bullish development.
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  • In FX, EURUSD is trading lower today as it extends this week’s pullback. For now, the move down appears corrective, however, price has traded through the 20-day EMA. A continuation lower would highlight a potential reversal and the end of the recovery between Jan 13 - 27. This would expose 1.0178, the Jan 13 low. On the upside, clearance of resistance at 1.0533, the Jan 27 high, would confirm a resumption of the recent bull cycle.
  • A bull cycle in GBPUSD remains in play and the pair is trading just below its recent highs. The latest pause appears to be a flag formation - a bullish continuation pattern. Attention is on the 50-day EMA, at 1.2510 and an important resistance. Clearance of the average would highlight a stronger bull cycle. Medium-term trend signals are unchanged and remain bearish. A reversal lower would refocus attention on 1.2100, the Jan 10 and bear trigger. First support to watch is 1.2400, the 20-day EMA.
  • The primary trend condition in USDJPY is bullish. However, the Jan 27 move down highlights a stronger bear threat. The pair has breached the 50-day EMA and a trendline drawn from the Sep 16 ‘24 low. A resumption of weakness would open 152.55, 61.8% of the Dec 3 - Jan 10 bull leg. Initial firm resistance is at 156.75, the Jan 23 high. Clearance of this hurdle would be a bullish development.