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Price Signal Summary - USDJPY Corrective Cycle Still In Play

OUTLOOK
  • In FX, EURUSD traded higher Monday, extending last week’s recovery from 1.0525, the Mar 8 low. Resistance at 1.0694 has been cleared, the Mar 6 / 7 high. This has strengthened a short-term bull theme and opened 1.0779 next, the 50.0% retracement of the Feb 2 - Mar 8 bear leg. Gains are considered corrective - for now. Support to watch is yesterday’s intraday low of 1.0640 where a break would signal a top. A move lower would refocus attention on 1.0525, the bear trigger.
  • GBPUSD traded higher Monday and topped resistance at 1.2147, the Feb 21 high. The break reinforces the current bullish theme and signals scope for an extension towards 1.2269, the Feb 14 high. Initial firm support to watch is 1.2029, the 20-day EMA. A breach of this level would be a bearish development and signal a top, potentially exposing the key support at 1.1804, the Mar 8 low and bear trigger.
  • Last Friday’s move lower in USDJPY and Monday’s bearish extension, highlights potential for a deeper corrective pullback. The pair has traded below support at 134.22, the 50-day EMA. The clear break of this average strengthens a short-term bearish threat and exposes 131.31, 61.8% retracement of the Jan 16 - Mar 8 rally. On the upside, initial resistance is at 134.95, the 20-day EMA.
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