Prices Tentatively Trend Lower As Monitoring Middle East Developments

Oil prices have been trending marginally lower during APAC trading today but are off intraday lows. WTI is down 0.2% to $86.50/bbl after falling to $86.11 earlier. Brent has traded below $90 today but is steady at $89.65 after a low of $89.22. The USD index is flat. Later US API crude and product inventory data are published.

• Oil has moderated in recent sessions driven by hopes that conflict in Israel/Gaza won’t spread on the back of US efforts to contain it. Secretary of State Blinken spoke to leaders in the region including Saudi Arabia and returned to Israel. In the interests of containment, President Biden is due to visit Israel and Jordan on Wednesday to speak with not only Israeli PM Netanyahu but also Jordanian King Abdullah II, Egyptian President el-Sisi and President Abbas of the State of Palestine.
• Biden’s visit comes at a crucial time after Iranian foreign minister Amirabdollahian said yesterday that “time for political solutions is running out” and the expansion of the war is “approaching the inevitable stage”, Bloomberg is reporting. There has also been unofficial communication between the US and Iran. The main risk to oil is if Iran directly joins the conflict or if it retaliates to a tightening of sanctions by blocking the Strait of Hormuz. Prices seem in “wait-and-see” mode.
• Talks continue to allow fair elections in Venezuela which would allow an easing of sanctions on its oil exports.
• Later the Fed’s Williams, Bowman, Barkin and Kashkari speak and US September retail sales, IP and NAHB housing index are released. The ECB’s de Guindos also appears and UK labour market data and Canadian September CPI print.