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Primary Dealer Analysts Biased To Modestly Hawkish Payrolls Surprise

US OUTLOOK/OPINION
  • Primary dealer analysts on balance see small upside risk to the broader consensus for nonfarm payrolls growth of 190k, with their median of 200k.
  • With a 'low' 4.0% unemployment rate reading in May (3.96% after 3.86% in April), it's not surprising that analysts are somewhat skewed to a downside surprise for the u/e rate in June.
  • AHE growth is also seen with modest hawkish risk to the median of 0.3% M/M, with some noting a calendar shift which would then be reversed in July. It already follows a surprisingly strong 0.4% M/M increase in May.
  • See the full MNI Payrolls Preview here.



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