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Private sector regular pay below the BOE's forecast

UK DATA
DataHomepagemarkets-real-timeData BulletBulletMarketsFixed Income BulletsForeign Exchange Bullets
  • The key private sector regular wages number of 5.9%Y/Y in the 3-months to the end of March is the key here. That is in line with previews that we have read and 0.1ppt below the BOE's forecast.
  • So at first glance this probably marginally increases the likelihood of a June cut- but the key remains next week's services CPI data (particularly as the BOE has deemphasised labour market data somewhat).
  • No big moves in GBP FX here - and given we are broadly in line with market expectations we don't expect big moves in STIR / gilts off the back of this later either.
  • More to follow.
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  • The key private sector regular wages number of 5.9%Y/Y in the 3-months to the end of March is the key here. That is in line with previews that we have read and 0.1ppt below the BOE's forecast.
  • So at first glance this probably marginally increases the likelihood of a June cut- but the key remains next week's services CPI data (particularly as the BOE has deemphasised labour market data somewhat).
  • No big moves in GBP FX here - and given we are broadly in line with market expectations we don't expect big moves in STIR / gilts off the back of this later either.
  • More to follow.