Pro-Democracy Parties Close Ranks Ahead Of Another Showdown For Pita

Thailand's pro-democracy coalition has agreed to nominate Move Forward Party (MFP) leader Pita Limjaroenrat as their candidate in the second round of voting for the Prime Minister position scheduled for Wednesday. The eight parties declared that Pita's re-nomination complies with parliamentary rules of procedure and threw their weight behind the MFP's proposal to strip the Senate off its role in electing the Prime Minister.

• It is now widely expected that Pita will fail to convince enough junta-appointed Senators and/or pro-military MPs to support his candidacy, based on the outcome of the first round of voting and on public comments from his political rivals. Reports suggesting that the Constitutional Court may look into his shareholding case on the day of the second round further dampened the odds of his success.
• Earlier today, Pita said that he should receive a third chance if he manages to improve his outcome by 10% (i.e. to 344-345 votes) in the second round. However, from a realistic vantage point, his re-nomination appears to be a tactic for buying more time and gaining some leverage in the expected negotiations ahead of the third or subsequent rounds of the PM vote.
• In the meantime, the pro-military establishment has chosen the strategy of gradually tightening the legal screws on Pita and the MFP. Conservative Senator Somchai Sawaengkarn said that Pita's eligibility for re-nomination will be raised with House Speaker Wan Muhamad Noor Matha tomorrow, with several other upper house members also arguing that a re-nomination should not be allowed.
• The scenarios for the disqualification or rejection of Pita's candidacy include Pheu Thai taking the lead in forming the next government, with the party already flagging such an option, despite formally reaffirming support for Pita. As long as the deadlock continues, executive power remains with caretaker government. Prolonged uncertainty weighs on local assets - the baht has been the worst performer in Asia save for the redback since the election.