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Prospect Of Snap Election Fades As Liberals Sink In Polls

CANADA

The prospect of a snap election taking place is set to recede as the incumbent centre-left Liberal Party of Canada (LPC) records its worst opinion polling support in years. Following a majorCabinet reshufflein July, there had been speculation that the 'reset' was a signal that PM Justin Trudeau was ramping up for what would be his fourth general election campaign. However, households are facing adifficult economic outlook with the prospect of a mild recession unlikely to be relieved by gov't stimulus as it remains wary of spurring inflation, making a snap election a major risk.

  • Trudeau's party recorded support of 23% in an EKOS poll from 24 September. The last time the LPC recorded a lower level of nationwide support was the 2011 general election, where the party finished in third place behind the centre-right Conservative Party of Canada (CPC) of then PM Stephen Harper and the left-wing New Democratic Party (NDP).
  • Based on recent polling Pierre Poilievre's CPC could win an outright majority in the House of Commons. For Trudeau the choice is difficult. A snap election in the near future would likely see his LPC lose power, with the party polling well below its 2021 vote share of 32.6%.
  • However, should Trudeau seek to go through to Oct 2025 - when the next election is due - he could face pressure from within the LPC to step aside sooner in favour of a new leader (likely deputy PM and Finance Minister Chyrista Freeland) to allow them to establish themselves ahead of a 2025 vote.
Chart 1. Canada General Election Opinion Polling, % and 6-Poll Moving Average

Source: EKOS, Nanos Research, Ipsos, Abacus Data, Angus Reid, Leger, Mainstreet Research, Pallas Data, MNI

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