Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
The prospect of a snap election taking place is set to recede as the incumbent centre-left Liberal Party of Canada (LPC) records its worst opinion polling support in years. Following a majorCabinet reshufflein July, there had been speculation that the 'reset' was a signal that PM Justin Trudeau was ramping up for what would be his fourth general election campaign. However, households are facing adifficult economic outlook with the prospect of a mild recession unlikely to be relieved by gov't stimulus as it remains wary of spurring inflation, making a snap election a major risk.
- Trudeau's party recorded support of 23% in an EKOS poll from 24 September. The last time the LPC recorded a lower level of nationwide support was the 2011 general election, where the party finished in third place behind the centre-right Conservative Party of Canada (CPC) of then PM Stephen Harper and the left-wing New Democratic Party (NDP).
- Based on recent polling Pierre Poilievre's CPC could win an outright majority in the House of Commons. For Trudeau the choice is difficult. A snap election in the near future would likely see his LPC lose power, with the party polling well below its 2021 vote share of 32.6%.
- However, should Trudeau seek to go through to Oct 2025 - when the next election is due - he could face pressure from within the LPC to step aside sooner in favour of a new leader (likely deputy PM and Finance Minister Chyrista Freeland) to allow them to establish themselves ahead of a 2025 vote.
Source: EKOS, Nanos Research, Ipsos, Abacus Data, Angus Reid, Leger, Mainstreet Research, Pallas Data, MNI
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.