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EMERGING MARKETS: Proximity to fresh tariffs leaves CNH nervous
-After a decent Thursday, CNH retraced somewhat on Friday as markets clearly
remained unnerved by the proximity of Trump's planned tariff hike due on Sunday.
The 15% levy threat remains in place, leading markets to sell China FX before
the long weekend, keeping USD/CNH in range of cycle highs at 7.1926. Trump's
Twitter feed will be carefully eyed despite the US holidays.
-LatAm FX diverged materially Friday, with ARS resuming its downward trend after
a decent recovery Thursday, while BRL, CLP and COP rallied sharply. Nonetheless,
USD/BRL and USD/MXN remain uncomfortably close to recent cycle highs, meaning
there's little chance of a firm bullish breakout for LatAm FX just yet.
-ZAR's end-of-month rally was impressive on a two-day basis, but the currency
remains on track to confirm a dismal month, dropping close to 6% against the
greenback. For the outlook to improve, ZAR bulls need to press the currency
through Fib support at 14.8556 and the 50-dma at 14.5698.
-Global PMI data, Turkish, South African and South Korean GDP and rate decisions
from Chile and Russia should keep markets busy.