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(U1) Tilted Higher


(U1) Uptrend Weakening


Bullard Kickstarts Reflation Unwind Theme


Fresh 2021 Lows

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Tsy yields plumbed fresh multi-month lows in the European morning before edging back higher, and are merely a little stronger on the session Friday. Overall, a consolidating feel to price action post-CPI and pre-FOMC, with a quiet schedule ahead.

  • Sep 10-Yr futures (TY) up 4.5/32 at 133-2.5, within narrow ranges (L: 133-01 / H: 133-06.5).
  • The 10-Yr is underperforming, following on from Thursday's outperformance (though the low today was 1.4266%, lowest since Mar 3): The 2-Yr yield is flat at 0.143%, 5-Yr is up 0.3bps at 0.7147%, 10-Yr is up 0.5bps at 1.4367%, and 30-Yr is up 0.3bps at 2.1297%.
  • Still on track for the largest weekly drop in 10Y yields since Jun 2020 (11+bp).
  • 1000ET sees the end of the week's data (and the last until Tuesday): Prelim UMich Jun sentiment, which is expected to rise.
  • With no supply / speakers (ahead of the FOMC meeting next week of course), the NY Fed's operational purchase schedule update at 1500ET forms the only other item on the docket. Today, NY Fed buys ~$1.425B of 10-22.5Y Tsys.