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AMERICAS OIL: Pulling Chevron’s Venezuela License to Hurt USGC Most: Kpler

AMERICAS OIL

Trump’s decision to end Chevron’s license to export crude on Venezuela will have most impact on the US, particularly the Gulf Coast, Kpler said.

  • US imports of Venezuelan crude have climbed to 300k b/d in recent months, most headed to the USGC, although a small amount goes to the East Coast. Venezuela accounted for around 8% of total US seaborne crude imports in 2024.
  • The decision comes as the USGC is already struggling to pull heavy sour barrels, with Mexican refining rising and production falling.
  • The squeeze on Venezuelan barrels is bullish for both Mexico’s Maya crude and Canada’s WCS as demand for alternative heavy sour grades should rise, Kpler said.
  • In the long run, the decision should cut Venezuela’s output from 900k b/d to 700k b/d as export limitations force shut ins.
Screenshot 2025-03-06 141648
Source: Kpler
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Trump’s decision to end Chevron’s license to export crude on Venezuela will have most impact on the US, particularly the Gulf Coast, Kpler said.

  • US imports of Venezuelan crude have climbed to 300k b/d in recent months, most headed to the USGC, although a small amount goes to the East Coast. Venezuela accounted for around 8% of total US seaborne crude imports in 2024.
  • The decision comes as the USGC is already struggling to pull heavy sour barrels, with Mexican refining rising and production falling.
  • The squeeze on Venezuelan barrels is bullish for both Mexico’s Maya crude and Canada’s WCS as demand for alternative heavy sour grades should rise, Kpler said.
  • In the long run, the decision should cut Venezuela’s output from 900k b/d to 700k b/d as export limitations force shut ins.
Screenshot 2025-03-06 141648
Source: Kpler