AMERICAS OIL
Trump’s decision to end Chevron’s license to export crude on Venezuela will have most impact on the US, particularly the Gulf Coast, Kpler said.
- US imports of Venezuelan crude have climbed to 300k b/d in recent months, most headed to the USGC, although a small amount goes to the East Coast. Venezuela accounted for around 8% of total US seaborne crude imports in 2024.
- The decision comes as the USGC is already struggling to pull heavy sour barrels, with Mexican refining rising and production falling.
- The squeeze on Venezuelan barrels is bullish for both Mexico’s Maya crude and Canada’s WCS as demand for alternative heavy sour grades should rise, Kpler said.
- In the long run, the decision should cut Venezuela’s output from 900k b/d to 700k b/d as export limitations force shut ins.
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