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Pushing A Little Lower Late Into The Session

US TSYS
  • Treasuries have seen a modest sell-off today and are currently only slightly lower than levels seen as US desks started filtering in this morning, having reversed a bid seen after surprisingly soft wholesale trade sales (-1.3% M/M in Mar vs cons +0.8%).
  • Today’s 10Y auction tailed by 1bp although it was digested relatively well, helped by internals keeping to recent ranges, including lowest dealer and highest indirect takes since Feb.
  • Cash yields sit 1-4bps higher on the day, bear steepening with 2s10s at -34.7bps (+2.2bp) but keeping within yesterday’s range.
  • TYM4 has tilted back to joint lows of 108-25+, around similar levels to yesterday’s overnight lows, with volumes approaching 1.3m having tailed off throughout the session after an above average overnight.
  • Support is seen at 108-15+ (20-day EMA). Nevertheless, channel resistance remains exposed after yesterday’s 109-09 tested notable resistance levels at 109-06+ (channel top from the Feb 1 high) and 109-08+ (50-day EMA) in a renewed look at 109-09+ (snap reaction after payrolls on May 3).
  • Tomorrow sees focus on weekly jobless claims data, 30Y supply (after April saw the first tail since November) and then SF Fed’s Daly (’24 voter), plus any spillover from the BoE decision.
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