Q&A continues: - Q: You said earlier that you...>

FED: Q&A continues:

- Q: You said earlier that you felt second half of the year could see robust

rebound, is that out of the question now? Is steady recovery possible?

A: Econ forecasts are always uncertain, today they are unusually uncertain. But

there are a few things we can say about the path ahead. First, deep contraction

etc now, will see Q2 data that is worse than any we have seen for the economy.

In the new phase, with recovery, we will see activity pick up. When will that

be? Hard to say, but say that it's in the third quarter: that could be a large

increase given the size of the fall, though unlikely it would bring us quickly

back to pre-crisis levels. After that, you will still have behavioural change,

so the sooner we get the virus under control, the sooner people regain

confidence. Trying to be precise about when is tough.