Q1 GDP Due Wednesday, Forecast To Rise In Line With Q4

The key piece of data this week will be Q1 GDP on Wednesday. Bloomberg consensus is expecting another 0.2% q/q rise which would result in annual growth easing to 1.2% from Q4’s 1.5%. Inventory and net export information will be released on Tuesday. The Fair Work Commission’s minimum wage decision is due today around 1030 AEST.

• Q1 balance of payments print on Tuesday and are forecast to show a narrowing in the current account surplus to $5.9bn from $11.8bn. Net exports are expected to detract 0.7pp from GDP after contributing 0.6pp in Q4.
• Company profits for Q1 are also Tuesday and are projected to decline 1% q/q after rising 7.4% q/q. Inventories are expected to rise 0.6% q/q after falling 1.7%. Q1 government finance data is also on Tuesday.
• The Melbourne Institute inflation gauge for May is released Monday. It has been moderating since its 6.1% peak in August 2023 and was 3.7% in April.
• ANZ job ads are also Monday and have been easing in line with softer labour demand.
• Final May Judo Bank composite/services PMIs are released Wednesday. The preliminary readings showed a slight moderation in activity growth.
• On Thursday April housing finance data print and total home loans are forecast to rise 1.5% m/m after +3.1%.
• April trade data is also due on Thursday and the surplus is expected to widen marginally to $5.5bn from $5.02bn.
• The RBA’s new deputy governor Hauser is scheduled to participate in a fireside chat on Friday at 1300 AEST.