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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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Get the latest on Central Bank Policy and FX & FI Markets to help inform both your strategic and tactical decision-making.
Free AccessMNI EUROPEAN MARKETS ANALYSIS: China Equities Lower Post CEWC
MNI EUROPEAN OPEN: Sharp Fall In China Bond Yields Continues
MNI BRIEF: RBA Details Hypothetical Monetary Policy Paths
Q1 GDP Misses But Productivity & ULCs Will Be A Concern For The RBA
ACGBs are sitting cheaper (YM -6.0 & XM -1.5) as local participants consider RBA Governor Lowe's speech, a Q1 GDP miss and troubling productivity and unit labour costs (ULC) updates.
- Cash ACGBs are 2-5bp cheaper with the AU-US 10-year yield differential 4bp higher at +16bp.
- Swap rates are 1-5bp higher on the day.
- The bills strip is lower with pricing -2 to -10, late whites leading.
- RBA dated OIS pricing is 1-5bp firmer across meetings after the data with December leading.
- While Q1 GDP undershot expectations, it also revealed a 4.5% y/y fall in productivity, the lowest annual rate since the series began in 1979. Moreover, ULCs rose from 6.9% y/y in Q4 to 7.9%, the highest annual rate since 1990 outside the pandemic. This data is only going to increase inflation risks and the RBA’s concerns.
- Goldman Sachs has raised its terminal rate hike expectation for the RBA (to 4.85% from 4.35%) after RBA Lowe's speech earlier today. The bank now expects hikes in July, August and September. Previously it had expected a 25bp hike in July.
- The global economic calendar is light today, with the highlight being the BoC Policy Decision. The market has assigned a 46% probability of a 25bp rate hike.
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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.