Q2 CPI On Tap

Despite its downtick this morning, NZD/USD has managed to cling onto the bulk of gains registered Friday as participants pared back hawkish Fed bets & U.S. equity benchmark rebounded.

• Fed members speaking towards the back end of last week were cautious not to rush into committing to a full-percentage point rate hike this month. Uni. of Mich. survey data released Friday showed that long-term inflation expectations in the U.S. fell to a one-year low, facilitating the repricing of Fed tightening.
• In New Zealand, focus turns to the quarterly CPI report, expected to show that headline inflation topped +7.0% Y/Y (BBG est. is +7.1%). It will be one of the key data signals ahead of the August MPS, when the RBNZ will revisit its economic forecasts. Note that the Reserve Bank will publish its preferred gauge of core prices (so-called sectoral factor model) later in the day.
• The government pre-empted the data with the announcement that the reductions to fuel excise tax, road use charges, and public transport fares will be extended through the end of January 2023. This should offer consumers some relief in the second half of the year, although FinMin Robertson still warned that inflation "is likely to stay for some time at levels higher than we have seen in recent years."
• NZD/USD trades at $0.6157, down 8 pips on the day, with bears hoping for renewed losses past Jul 14 low of $0.6061. A breach of that level would bring the $0.6000 figure into view. On the flip side, a bounce above Jul 8 high of $0.6207 would turn focus to Jul 4 high of $0.6252.