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Q3 GDP & September Monthly Data Prints Due Tomorrow

CHINA DATA

A reminder that China Q3 GDP prints tomorrow. The market expects a decent rebound from the fall in Q2. Q/Q growth is expected at +2.8% (versus -2.6% in Q2), while would take the y/y pace to 3.3% from 0.4%. Also out is the monthly run of activity indicators - IP, retail sales, fixed asset investment and the jobless rate.

  • The range for q/q GDP estimates is 2.5% to 4.4%. A positive outcome is no surprise, as Shanghai emerged from lockdown conditions, which hit Q2 growth.
  • Still, given the deterioration in survey numbers at the end of Q3, such as PMI prints, the market may not get too excited by any bounce.
  • For September IP, the market expects a further improvement to 4.8% y/y from 4.2%.
  • For retail, 3.1% y/y is forecast against a 5.4% gain last month. This would be in line with weaker services PMI readings for September, with the Chengdu lockdown weighing.
  • Fixed asset investment is expected to improve slightly to +6.0% ytd y/y from 5.8%, although property investment is still forecast to remain weak at -7.5% ytd y/y versus -7.4%. Finally, the jobless rate is forecast to edge down to 5.2%, against 5.3% in August.
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