MNI: PBOC Sets Yuan Parity Higher At 7.1312 Weds; -0.34% Y/Y

MNI: PBOC Net Drains CNY248 Bln Via OMO Weds; Rates Unchanged

CHINA PBOC CONDUCTS CNY2 BILLION VIA 7-DAY REVERSE REPOS WEDS

CHINA SETS YUAN CENTRAL PARITY AT 7.1312 WEDS VS 7.1291

MNI BRIEF: 'Noise' Driving Economic Deterioration- Campos Neto

MNI China Daily Summary: Tuesday, July 2

Australia May Total Dwelling Approved +5.5%

Australia May Retail Trade +0.6%

MNI: AUSTRALIA MAY RETAIL SALES +0.6% M/M

RPT-MNI: Canada Sticks To Fiscal Anchors, Spends Chunk Of Windfall

MNI BRIEF: Poilievre Calls QE 'Scam' And Would Limit BOC Remit

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Q4 GDP Ahead – Asymmetrical Risks From Inflationary Pressure Angle

CANADA
  • Canadian GDP for Q4 is released at 0830ET for the last major release that realistically can affect communication at the Mar 6 BoC decision -- labour productivity also on Mar 6 lands just 75 minutes ahead of the announcement.
  • Expectations were buoyed by the Nov report (Jan 31) with a 0.2% M/M increase (cons 0.1) and importantly indicated a 0.3% increase for Dec. It followed five particularly weak months, with declines in Jun & Jul before three flat months.
  • BoC’s Macklem said the latest data were stronger than expected, and indeed the monthly series at least is tracking at 1.2% annualized vs the 0.0% the BoC forecast for Q4 in the January MPR, but Macklem still sees growth remaining weak until mid-2024.
  • Quarterly expenditure and monthly industry-based GDP measures have thrown up some surprise differences recently, e.g. the monthly data showing -0.2% ar for Q3 vs -1.1% for the quarterly data.
  • Bloomberg consensus looks for 0.8% annualized in Q4. With the BoC estimating potential output growth centred around 2.1% (1.0-3.2%) over 2024-25, it would take a material upside surprise to have meaningful inflationary pressure whereas a downside surprise would see a faster widening in excess supply, most recently deemed as “modest”.
  • Consumer spending should have firmed but still look stagnant in per capita terms – although some have previously cautioned looking per capita owing to sizeable share of younger age groups – whilst net trade should have also been positive.
  • Inventories should again be watched in case they drive any surprise. They accounted for a -0.2pp drag to non-annualized GDP growth of -0.3% back in Q3 but saw even larger swings in late 2022/early 2023. We expect large swings in either direction here to be faded.
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