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Q4 GDP Expected To Contract

NEW ZEALAND

Q4 GDP is expected to contract for the first time since Q1 2022 with the Bloomberg consensus at -0.2% q/q bringing the annual rate to +3.3% y/y after rising a strong 2% q/q and 6.4% y/y in the previous quarter. The decline is expected to be driven by private consumption after weak retail sales following 400bp of cumulative tightening. Tourism should boost services. Consensus is a lot weaker than the RBNZ forecasted in February. It is expecting GDP to rise of 0.7% q/q in Q4.

  • Forecasts are quite dispersed from -1.5% to +0.5% q/q with most estimates between -0.3% and 0.0%.
  • Both BNZ and Westpac are forecasting -0.2% q/q, Kiwibank and ANZ -0.3% and ASB -0.5%.
  • Q1 could also be negative following from Cyclone Gabrielle and extensive flooding.
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