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Quarterly Inflation Report & National Monetary Council Meeting

BRAZIL
  • The National Monetary Council will hold a meeting on Thursday to define the inflation target for 2026, and the market appears confident the council are leaning toward maintaining a goal of 3% that is already set for 2025. BCB governor Campos Neto has reiterated his belief that raising the target would not be a positive development for the inflation outlook. Recently, Finance minister Haddad has signalled that any changes to the inflation regime will focus on its horizon.
  • Beforehand, the second quarter inflation report will be released where the central bank will publish the updated forecasts for real GDP growth, and conditional forecasts for inflation through year-end 2025. The document should also analyse the domestic and external balance of risks for both growth and inflation.
  • Although several sell-side analysts have adjusted their forecast following the minutes to incorporate a rate cut in August, Goldman Sachs indicated they would be “paying particular attention to the 1Q-2Q25 inflation forecasts and whether they are now around the 3.0% target (a deviation of no more than 20bp from the 3.0% target) for that would indicate some room to initiate the Selic rate easing cycle in August, since by the Aug Copom meeting 2025 will already be part of the relevant horizon for monetary policy though with a much lower weight than 2024.”
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