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Question Regarding Job Openings Versus Available Workers

FED
  • Q: Re job openings vs available workers
  • A: We talk a lot about vacancies and the unemployed rate. Vacancies have been unusually important in this cycle because they've been been so out of line. Unemployment is at a low 3.5%. We thought we would get labor supply coming in. You mentioned wages. I would characterize that as a mixed picture. I would call it a flattening out at a level that's well above the level that would be consistent over time with 2% inflation, assuming reasonable productivity growth. With the ECI reading, a mixed picture. The headline number was a disappointment. Let's say it was high, it didn't show a decline. If you look at private sector workers, the compensation did come down. Overall, though, the broader picture is an overheated labor market where demand exceeds supply. Maybe signs of the beginning of a gradual softening are there, but it's not obvious to me. I don't see the case for real softening just yet.
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