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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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Free AccessQuestions On Recession Risks & Potentially Overtightening
- Question on the 3M vs 18M spread and recession risks. Also Q re the risk of doing too little vs doing too much
- A: We do monitor the near-term forward spread; it's been our preferred measure, dominates the ones people look at. It's not inverted. You have to look at why it's doing what it's doing: could be because it expects cuts, or expects inflation to come down. Yes we monitor it.
- Time has passed and we've raised 375bp. I wouldn't change a word in that statement re doing too little vs doing too much. If we overtighten we have the ability with our tools to support economic activity if that's necessary. In the other hand if you make a mistake in the other direction then it's a year or two down the road, realizing you didn't get it; the risk is inflation is entrenched in peoples' thinking. Employment costs go up with the passage of time.
- We're farther along now, and now focused on, what's the level we need to get rates. Don't know what we'll do when we get there, by the way. The first thing is to find your way there.
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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.