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Quicktake TD on Tsy Quarterly Refunding

US TSYS/SUPPLY
For the second consecutive time, auction sizes remain at last quarter's record amounts. As anticipated, markets to absorb $126B in coupons and bonds next week: $58B in 3Y notes next Tue, May 11, $41B 10Y notes Wed and $27B in 30Y Bonds on Thu.
  • Dealers widely anticipate a gradual reduction in coupon sizes later in the year with TD Securities analysts expect the Tsy to start "trimming coupon auction sizes in November.
  • Regarding bills, TD notes "the Treasury suggested their cash balance will decline to a larger $450bn by the July 31 debt ceiling reinstatement date, bill supply is set to decline by a further $150bn in the next three months, which should keep bills trading negative vs OIS. Even if the Fed raises IOER in the coming months, we look for bills to trade extremely rich amid large money fund AUMs."
  • Regarding debt ceiling reinstatement (July 31) and extraordinary measures -- amid significant uncertainty, TD believes "measures may provide about $350bn of headroom which may only stave off the debt ceiling by 1-2 months. We look for Congress to address the debt ceiling as part of the upcoming fiscal packages."
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