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Rallies As RBNZ Raises Terminal Rate Projection Significantly

NZD

NZD/USD prints $0.6170, up ~0.3% after the RBNZ raised the OCR by 0.75 bps to 4.25%.


  • The pair rallied from $0.6140 before the decision printing a high at $0.6184 in a 0.7% trough to peak move. The RBNZ noted they see the OCR now peaking at 5.5% next vs 4.1% previously, also noting they considered an OCR increase of 100bps as near term inflation expectations have risen.
  • We have given back some gains, as broader USD sentiment stabilizes. Still NZD is outperforming against the rest of the G10.
  • AUD/NZD has printed its lowest level since 30 March, hitting a post OCR decision low of NZ$1.0750, the next target for NZD bulls is the low from 16 March at NZ$1.0615. We have stabilized somewhat, now back at 1.0780.
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