Ramsden Reiterates Overnight Message, Bund Swings Eyed

Bund moves have helped set the tone early on (with typically hawkish comments from ECB’s Nagel and November lows in German 10-Year yields limiting the early bond rally), leaving gilt futures (based on the H4 contract) +10 on the day at ~96.45, 20 ticks off the low of an early ~40 tick range.

• Cash gilt yields are 0.5-1.5bp lower across the curve, steepening at the margin.
• SONIA futures moved away from best levels in sympathy with gilts, before regaining some poise to last show -0.5 to +2.5 through the blues.
• BoE-dated OIS contracts through the Dec ’24 MPC are little changed to 2.5bp softer on the day.
• As noted elsewhere, comments from BoE’s Ramsden didn’t really add anything new to his view. He is still communicating upside risks to inflation and the need for higher for longer interest rates. He reiterated that UK inflation has become more homegrown and gave nothing away re: the impact of the Autumn Statement on the MPC's thinking.
• Minutes from the DMO’s latest consultation failed to provide anything in the way of meaningful shocks, generally falling in line with our pre-release expectations.
• GBP2.75bn of 3.75% Oct-53 supply and comments from BoE hawk Haskel provide the scheduled domestic risk events from here.
• The presence of the impending supply helps explain the marginal steepening pressure seen thus far.