Rand Continues To Fluctuate Ahead Of SARB Rate Decision Tomorrow

USD/ZAR continues to fluctuate between gains and losses, sticking to a fairly tight range ahead of tomorrow's SARB monetary policy decision. The pair last deals at ZAR19.2186, up ~170 pips on the session, with familiar technical levels still in play.

• Softer than expected April CPI data released this morning dampened expectations of a 50bp rate hike tomorrow (Bloomberg estimate the implied odds at around 80%), albeit it remains the most likely scenario. After the release of the data, Nedbank reaffirmed their dissenting call for a 25bp hike, noting that "a poor growth trajectory and today’s lower inflation outcome will convince the SARB to hike the interest rates by a smaller margin of 25 basis points tomorrow."
• Comments from ANC Secretary General Fikile Mbalula's interview with the BBC have been doing the rounds today, as they highlighted continued ruling party/government doublespeak on a number of issues. Mbalula said that "if it was up to the ANC, we would want President Putin to be here tomorrow," even as the government is yet to confirm if his visit is legally viable. The ANC official added that the party has instructed ministers to do away with load-shedding by the year-end, although government officials have been playing down the prospect of achieving this aim so quickly.