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Rand Ekes Out Some Gains, Inflation Expectations Rise

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Spot USD/ZAR briefly came under pressure this morning but has now recovered from its intraday low of ZAR18.2743. The rate deals at ZAR18.3911, down ~460 pips on the day, with bears looking for a retreat past Mar 14 low of ZAR18.0420. The key near-term topside target is provided by ZAR18.7192, which capped gains on Mar 8.

  • The BBG Commodity index has found poise after printing new cyclical lows yesterday and last sits ~0.2% higher on the session. That said, the precious metals subindex is struggling to challenge yesterday's highs amid stabilisation in market sentiment.
  • Local-currency bonds have advanced across the curve and last trade 2.4-7.1bp richer, with 10-year breakeven inflation rate sitting at 6.32%.
  • The latest BER Inflation Expectations Survey showed that anticipated CPI growth for 2024 increased to +5.8% Y/Y in 1Q2023 from +5.6% in 4Q2022.
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Spot USD/ZAR briefly came under pressure this morning but has now recovered from its intraday low of ZAR18.2743. The rate deals at ZAR18.3911, down ~460 pips on the day, with bears looking for a retreat past Mar 14 low of ZAR18.0420. The key near-term topside target is provided by ZAR18.7192, which capped gains on Mar 8.

  • The BBG Commodity index has found poise after printing new cyclical lows yesterday and last sits ~0.2% higher on the session. That said, the precious metals subindex is struggling to challenge yesterday's highs amid stabilisation in market sentiment.
  • Local-currency bonds have advanced across the curve and last trade 2.4-7.1bp richer, with 10-year breakeven inflation rate sitting at 6.32%.
  • The latest BER Inflation Expectations Survey showed that anticipated CPI growth for 2024 increased to +5.8% Y/Y in 1Q2023 from +5.6% in 4Q2022.